Beyond the Holographic Universe - 超越宇宙全息

The scientific forum of Fausto Intilla (inventor & scientific popularizer) - WWW.OLOSCIENCE.COM
 
HomePortalSearchRegisterLog in

 

 Sunspots Linked To Heavy Rains In East Africa: Helps Predict

Go down 
AuthorMessage
Fausto
Admin
Fausto

Posts : 185
Join date : 2007-07-24
Age : 48
Location : Switzerland

Sunspots Linked To Heavy Rains In East Africa: Helps Predict Empty
PostSubject: Sunspots Linked To Heavy Rains In East Africa: Helps Predict   Sunspots Linked To Heavy Rains In East Africa: Helps Predict Icon_minitimeMon Aug 13, 2007 9:21 pm

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070806090345.htm

Science Daily — The research, conducted by paleoclimatologist Curt Stager of Paul Smith's College in Paul Smiths, N.Y. and colleagues, can be used by public health officials to increase measures against insect-borne diseases long before epidemics begin.
The scientists showed that unusually heavy rainfalls in East Africa over the past century preceded peak sunspot activity by about one year.

"The hope is that people on the ground will use this research to predict heavy rainfall events," Stager said. "Those events lead to erosion, flooding and disease. With the help of these findings, we can now say when especially rainy seasons are likely to occur, several years in advance."

"These results are an important step in applying paleoclimate analyses to predicting future environmental conditions and their impacts on society," said Dave Verardo, director of the National Science Foundation's paleoclimate program, which funded the research. "It's especially important in a region [East Africa] perennially on the knife-edge of sustainability."

Sunspots indicate an increase in the sun's energy output, and peak on an 11-year cycle. The next peak is expected in 2011-12. If the pattern holds, rainfall would peak the year before.

Because mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects thrive in wet conditions, heavy rains may herald outbreaks of diseases such as Rift Valley Fever.

The research relied on rainfall data going back a century. Historical records of water levels at lakes Victoria, Tanganyika, and Naivasha also demonstrated the link.

Stager demonstrated that while the link between sunspots and rainfall seemed to grow weaker from 1927 to 1968, the cyclic pattern held true throughout the 20th Century. Previous statistical analysis discounted the link for a variety of reasons, including the influence of climatic disturbances not associated with sunspots.

The researchers, who represent five institutions from the United States and Great Britain, offered several reasons why sunspot peaks may affect rainfall. The increased solar energy associated with sunspots, they suggest, heats both land and sea, forcing moist air to rise and triggering precipitation. It may also induce El Niño events, which increase rainfall in East Africa.

While sunspot peaks augur extraordinarily wet rainy seasons, heavy rains are possible at other times as well, Stager acknowledged. But most of the rainiest times, he said, are consistently coupled with the predictable rhythms of sunspot peaks.

"When you think of climate troubles in Africa, it's usually about drought," Stager said. "You don't often think of the opposite situation.

"Too much rain can create just as many problems."

The results are published online in the August 7 issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research.

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by National Science Foundation.
___________________________________________________________
Sunspots Linked To Heavy Rains In East Africa: Helps Predict 070806090345
Studying sunspots may lead to better prediction of disease in East Africa. (Credit: Curt Stager, Paul Smith's College)

Fausto Intilla's web site: www.oloscience.com
Back to top Go down
http://www.oloscience.com
 
Sunspots Linked To Heavy Rains In East Africa: Helps Predict
Back to top 
Page 1 of 1

Permissions in this forum:You cannot reply to topics in this forum
Beyond the Holographic Universe - 超越宇宙全息 :: International Issues :: Environmental Issues-
Jump to: